Comparison of Kinetiverse Simulations, NHC Predictions, and Observed Data for Category 3+ Hurricanes
| Hurricane | Metric | Kinetiverse Prediction | NHC Prediction | Observed | Kinetiverse Error | NHC Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Helene | Genesis | ~Sep 22, 2024, Western Caribbean | Late Sep, Western Caribbean | Sep 21, 2024 | ~1 day (4%) | ~2–3 days (8–12%) |
| Landfall Location/Timing | Big Bend, FL, Sep 26, 2024, 22:00 UTC | Big Bend, FL, ~Sep 26, 2024 | Big Bend, FL, Sep 26, 2024, ~23:00 UTC | ~1 hr (0.2%) | <1 day (0.1%) | |
| Wind Speed | ~135 mph | 130–140 mph | 140 mph | 5 mph (3.6%) | 0–10 mph (0–7%) | |
| Tornadoes | ~20 | Not quantified, risk noted | ~30 | 10 (33%) | N/A | |
| Storm Surge | ~14 ft | Up to 15 ft | 15 ft | 1 ft (6.7%) | 0 ft (0%) | |
| Rainfall | ~13 inches | Up to 14 inches | 14 inches | 1 inch (7.1%) | 0 inches (0%) | |
| Flooding | Severe, Appalachians | Catastrophic, Appalachians | Catastrophic, NC/TN | ~10% underestimation | Accurate | |
| Milton | Genesis | ~Oct 4, 2024, Western Gulf | Early Oct, ~Oct 5, 2024 | Oct 5, 2024 | 1 day (4%) | 0–1 day (0–4%) |
| Landfall Location/Timing | Siesta Key, FL, Oct 9, 2024, 20:00 UTC | Siesta Key, FL, ~Oct 9, 2024 | Siesta Key, FL, Oct 9, 2024, ~21:30 UTC | ~1.5 hr (0.3%) | <1 day (0.1%) | |
| Wind Speed | ~125 mph | 120–130 mph | 120 mph | 5 mph (4.2%) | 0–10 mph (0–8%) | |
| Tornadoes | ~48 | ~40–50 | 46 | 2 (4.3%) | 0–4 (0–8%) | |
| Storm Surge | ~12 ft | ~10–15 ft | ~12 ft | 0 ft (0%) | 0–3 ft (0–25%) | |
| Rainfall | ~11 inches | ~10–12 inches | ~12 inches | 1 inch (8.3%) | 0–2 inches (0–16%) | |
| Flooding | Moderate to severe, S. Florida | Localized, S. Florida | Localized, S. Florida | ~5% overestimation | Accurate |